BREXIT UPDATE: Will there be another extension??
Trade insurance specialist Euler Hermes publishes a weekly risk report. In this week’s report they are predicting an extension of Article 50, probably until Q3 of 2020.
What is Article 50?
European leaders wanted to make the EU more democratic, more secure, more transparent and more efficient. This resulted in the Lisbon Treaty, which became law at the end of 2009. One of the articles in that law was Article 50, which describes the procedure for countries that want to leave the EU.
Why Would It Be Extended?
Next week the UK Parliament will probably call a no-confidence vote. Boris Johnson has made a large part of the members, and a lot of other people as well for that matter, very angry. He will suspend the Parliament for a longer period than initially planned. The timing for this is curious, as there is a lot to discuss with a potential no-deal on October 31st getting closer and closer.
If a no-confidence vote is called, the chances of Boris Johnson surviving that vote are not very good. He would then get 14 days to form a new government for a second try to win the vote. If that fails, there will be new general elections. This would be a very good reason for the EU to extend Article 50.
Still, according to Euler Hermes, the probability of a no-deal Brexit is still 40%. You can find their risk report here.